The Gambling Commission has clarified its position on prediction markets, outlining how such products would be treated under gambling regulation in the UK.
In a statement published on the Gambling Commission website, Director of Strategy Brad Enright addressed growing interest in prediction markets, driven largely by their emergence in the US.
Prediction markets are platforms that allow participants to trade contracts based on the outcomes of future events, including political, financial and sporting events. While the term is relatively new, the Commission noted that the underlying concept is not unfamiliar to the UK market. Comparable products, most notably betting exchanges, have been operating in the UK for more than two decades.
Under UK law, any commercial product that meets the definition of gambling must be licensed and regulated by the Gambling Commission, with the exception of spread betting, which falls under the remit of the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).
According to the Commission, prediction market products currently offered in the US would likely fall within the definition of a “betting intermediary” if launched in the UK. This licence category is designed to cover exchange-style models where customers bet against one another rather than against an operator.
The Commission emphasised that licensed operators are subject to strict requirements covering consumer protection, fairness, market integrity and the prevention of crime. Enforcement action may be taken where standards are not met.
By contrast, firms offering financial services products rather than gambling facilities must be authorised by the FCA.
The regulator also warned that unlicensed prediction market operators should ensure they are not targeting or transacting with consumers in Great Britain, as operating without an appropriate licence constitutes a criminal offence.
While prediction markets have gained traction in the US, the Commission suggested that commercial conditions differ significantly in Great Britain, where sports betting is already well established within a single national regulatory framework.
The guidance follows recent regulatory activity by the Gambling Commission, including new requirements for the immediate removal of non-compliant gaming machines from July 2026.
Betting exchanges, which share similar characteristics to prediction markets, have been legally operating in Great Britain since 2000 under Gambling Commission regulation
