Brazil’s betting data gap under fire as piracy estimates clash

Brazil’s betting market is facing renewed scrutiny as conflicting estimates over the scale of illegal activity draw criticism from policymakers.

Deputy Julio Lopes, who coordinates a congressional commission focused on piracy,, described the gap between official and industry figures as “absurd,” highlighting the lack of precise data in a sector already worth tens of billions.

During discussions, Leandro Lucchesi, regulation coordinator at Brazil’s regulator, the Secretariat of Prizes and Betting (SPA), referenced private consultancy estimates suggesting that up to 70% of betting activity may already be operating within the regulated market. 

However, industry associations maintain that illegal platforms could still account for around half of all activity.

Lucchesi clarified that the SPA does not formally endorse these figures and confirmed that the regulator is working toward more reliable data. 

A technical cooperation agreement with the Institute of Applied Economic Research (Ipea) is expected to support the development of official metrics, with a work plan scheduled for 2026.

Independent estimates presented during the session suggest that the legal betting market generated approximately BR37bn ($7bn) in 2025, contributing BR9.9bn in tax revenues. 

In contrast, the illegal market is believed to handle between BR26bn and BR40bn annually, potentially diverting between BR7bn and BR10bn away from public funding.

Stakeholders pointed to structural challenges in addressing the issue. Representatives stated the need for stronger payment controls, particularly around instant-payment method Pix, as well as improved access to fraud monitoring systems to prevent money laundering.

The National Telecommunications Agency (Anatel) noted that illegal operators frequently change domains and use tools to mask user locations, limiting the effectiveness of website blocking measures, which are currently carried out based on SPA directives.