The National Basketball Association (NBA) has advanced discussions with Kalshi and Polymarket on forming a new partnership with both operators, potentially joining Major League Baseball (MLB) and the National Hockey League (NHL) in collaborating with prediction market entities.
While no clear timeframe for when a deal could be struck has been made available, there could be motivation for the NBA to agree to a new partnership with Kalshi and Polymarket prior to the start of the 2026-2027 regular season in October.
Polymarket recently agreed to an exclusive partnership with MLB on March 19, with many estimating the deal was worth $300m over four years.
While agreeing to collaborate with multiple operators could differ the eventual financial terms of the NBA’s deal with Polymarket and Kalshi, the $300m figure is expected to serve as a precedent for all discussions.
The NBA originally began talks with both parties during 2025, but the election of Michael Selig as Chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in December helped discussions gain additional momentum.
Selig engaged with multiple professional sports leagues on how the CFTC would propose rules aimed at maintaining betting integrity, and acknowledged that certain markets may become more susceptible to manipulation than others.
Due to such concerns, the NBA has put forth its interest in controlling a portion of what markets can be offered by Polymarket and Kalshi, as well as establishing mechanisms which can help monitor suspicious betting patterns.
Currently, DraftKings and FanDuel serve as two official betting sponsors of the NBA, but league Commissioner Adam Silver recently confirmed the NBA is “looking at prediction markets essentially in the same way (as) sports betting markets… or companies.”
Along with the MLB and NHL, organizations such as Major League Soccer (MLS) and the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) have also entered into new agreements with prediction market operators.
The Ohio Casino Control Commission issued a letter of intent and proposed a $5m fine against Kalshi on April 15, believing the operator has been conducting business without a license since January 2025
