Better Collective, a sports betting media and affiliate group, has lowered its 2026 financial guidance after Brazil introduced a nationwide prohibition on fixed-odds betting and online gaming, less than two years after the country's federal regulated market launched.
The sports media group now expects organic revenue growth of 3-8%, compared with its previous 7-12% range. EBITDA before special items growth is forecast between -7% and 3%, down from 8-18%, while its net debt to EBITDA target remains below 3x.
Better Collective said its Brazilian operations had been trending towards approximately €45m ($51.2m) in 2026 revenue before the measure was announced, representing around 12% of current analyst consensus.
Approximately €15m had been expected during the remainder of the year, while the business carries an annual cost base of around €10m.
Brazil's regulated fixed-odds betting framework took effect in January 2025. The Ministry of Finance maintained a federal authorisation system under legislation introduced before the latest reversal, with authorised operators subject to federal oversight through the Secretariat of Prizes and Betting.
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva signed the provisional measure on 25 September, prohibiting the operation, offering, intermediation and advertising of fixed-odds betting. The measure has immediate legal effect but requires congressional consideration to remain permanent.
The change affects a market with 85 authorised operators, which had paid BR$30m for five-year federal authorisations. The measure was introduced shortly before Brazil's 4 October presidential election, following public debate over gambling-related harm, household finances and the regulated sector's economic role.
Better Collective Co-CEO and Co-Founder, Jesper Søgaard, said: "Removing that regulated market will not eliminate the underlying demand for betting."
The group generates most of its Brazilian revenue through revenue-share agreements with licensed operators, leaving the eventual impact dependent on how those partners respond to the restrictions.
Brazil had previously been an important growth market for Better Collective. Its Brazilian business generated more than €70m in 2024 before regulatory changes caused a rebasing during 2025.
The guidance reduction follows a stronger second quarter, when Better Collective reported revenue of €89m, EBITDA before special items of €27m and net income of €8.2m. At that stage, it maintained its previous full-year guidance despite regulatory headwinds in Brazil and the UK.
Better Collective has also suspended its 2027-2028 financial guidance and paused its share buyback programme while the Brazilian regulatory process remains unresolved.
In August, Better Collective reported 9% revenue growth for Q2, with North American revenue share, talent-led media and prediction markets supporting growth while Brazil and UK regulatory changes each reduced EBITDA before special items by an estimated €2m.
Better Collective said Brazil's operations have an annual cost base of approximately €10m, with mitigating measures under consideration if the restrictions remain in place for an extended period
